Title

Estimating Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Landfall Probability for the United States

Document Type

Dissertation

Comments

Presented to the Graduate Council of Texas State University–San Marcos in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy.

Thesis Advisor: Richard Dixon
Committee Members: Jonathan Herbert, Phil Suckling, Mark Fonstad

Abstract

This dissertation examines the historical record of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin to determine the eventual landfall probability for the United States coastline based on the complete tracks of the storms. A spatial dimension is added so that the entire basin is evaluated to determine which storms in all portions of the basin ultimately strike the United States. A tessellation of 3,375 hexagons are systematically evaluated and eventual landfall probabilities are calculated for all storms passing through each hexagon. Probabilities are calculated and mapped for each of twelve states and regions from Texas to Maine. The maps show spatial areas that contribute storms to each of the twelve states and regions. Additionally, an average length of time until landfall is calculated for the entire Atlantic Basin based on the complete period of record. This highlights regions of the Atlantic Basin lying outside of the maximum forecast period – up to 15 days prior to potential landfall.